Imagine that you opened DogTOWN at the start of 2019. It’s in the location next to Walmart as we discussed. Your financial projections seemed relatively accurate, with revenues and expenses tracking close to what you projected (as a refresher, here’s what we discussed about DogTOWN).
About a year after you opened, the covid-19 crisis started impacting people and businesses around the world. The following list is a partial timeline of events that could be relevant for the owner and manager of DogTOWN.
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- 03/15/2020: the governor of Oklahoma announced a declaration of emergency.
- 03/31/2020: the treasury announces a Paycheck Protection Program to help small businesses (like DogTOWN) during this crisis.
- 04/01/2020: the governor of Oklahoma announces that non-essential businesses should close. This would include DogTOWN. But, food takeout and delivery is still an option if we serve food so it is possible DogTOWN is still providing food in a limited basis.
- 04/03/2020: PPP applications begin. It does not go as smoothly as planned
- 04/22/2020: The governor of Oklahoma announces a plan to start reopening the economy and phase in the relaxation of the ‘safer at home’ initiative. Much of the state will return to operation (with strict distancing rules) on 05/01/2020
- 04/24/2020: the treasury announces that a second round of PPP loans will be funded
- 04/27/2020: PPP applications begin for the second round
- 05/01/2020: Oklahoma businesses may reopen subject to strict rules regarding social distancing
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The following information is provided by the Oklahoma department of health:
- Oklahoma Data
- Data by county (we’re in Custer County)
- Data by city (we’re in Weatherford)
There are many entities providing projections about the trajectory of this crisis. A popular source is from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. Projections continue to evolve and change with new information, the IHME is currently projecting:
- IHME projection for the United States
- IHME projection for Oklahoma
Your task for this final paper is very open-ended. Your primary goal is to demonstrate that you can apply and use what you’ve learned about finance in the context of the operation of a small business. Bring anything you can into your paper to demonstrate your understanding and application of the tools of finance. Things that should be included in your submission:
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- numbers
- forecasts
- projections
- analysis
- explanations of how the actual performance of your business tracked with your projections (I know you have to make up both sets of data, but comparing projections to actual performance is important)
- explanations of how you responded to the covid-19 crisis. Include the financial impacts to you, to DogTOWN and to your employees. What decisions and actions did you make to lessen those impacts? How successful were they?
- explanations of your plan to reopen the business. What timeline will your follow? What changes will you make to the operation of the business? How will this affect you, the business, and your employees? What other decisions would you considering, and why is your course of action the best?
- What are your financial projections for the remainder of this year and for next? Will DogTOWN survive? If so, why? If not, why not? What decisions or variables could swing the success/failure of the business in the other direction?
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